A Bhutto Successor?

The assassination of Benazir Bhutto opens barely-healed wounds and leaves a nuclear power at the risk of civil war.

The most pressing priority for nuclear-armed Pakistan -- and the world -- now that the Bhutto dynasty has been terminated is to avoid having this difficult country descend into civil war.

Pakistan is barely a unitary state, riven by centuries-old ethnic and clan rivalries constantly refreshed by revenge. The Bhutto family's stronghold was the massive southern Sindh province, centered on the country's biggest and richest city, Karachi. Benazir Bhutto easily carried the south, but her Pakistan People's Party has always struggled for ground in the politically dominant northern Punjab, hence her fateful decision to campaign yesterday for next month's election in Rawalpindi.

That she was killed doing so, in the Punjab, will incense the resentful south. Punjabis have traditionally dominated government in Pakistan, civilian and military, and often in coalition with the Pashtuns of the fractious NorthWest Frontier Province bordering Afghanistan. For Sindh, the Bhuttos were always a rallying point. But with their "Daughter of the East" champion dead and the dynasty defeated, the isolated Sindhis and Bhutto-sympathizers could be out for revenge.

Any conflict will be fanned by Islamist extremists, including Al Qaeda, which will be blamed by many for today's atrocity -- although it could easily have been anyone; the government, the military, and even rivals within Bhutto's own party have had fingers pointed at them. A religious war is the West's worst nightmare and the situation will be enough to justify President-General Pervez Musharraf again declaring martial law, with Western acquiescence.

There is no logical successor to Bhutto in the PPP, a party founded by her father before he was hanged by the Pakistani military in 1979 for corruption. Indeed, the Bhutto dynasty that has been such a feature -- and often a poisonous one -- of Pakistani politics for much of the country's 60-year history has been extinguished with Benazir's death. Her two elder politician brothers both died violently and their 20-something children hated their aunt and exhibit no particular fondness for her PPP machinery or politics generally.

A senior official of Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) told TIME late Saturday that the slain former prime minister's 19-year-old son, Bilawal, will likely be named as her political heir and the new party leader on Sunday. PPP members are due to meet to discuss the party's future and to give Bilawal, a student at Oxford, a chance to read his mother's last will and testament.

A Pakistani television news channel also carried reports that Bilawal will be made the new leader, which the channel said accorded with Benazir Bhutto's wishes. If confirmed, the teenager will become the third leader of the 40-year-old center-left party, one of Pakistan's most powerful. Bilawal will follow his grandfather, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who founded the PPP in 1967, led Pakistan as Prime Minister for four years in the mid 1970s and was hanged in 1979 by a military government, and Benazir, who took over from her father and was killed in a shooting and suicide bomb attack two days ago.

The quick anointment of a Bhutto to head the PPP will help rally party members devastated by the assassination of their tough but beloved leader. The party hopes to ride a wave of sympathy in parliamentary elections that are set for Jan. 8 but may yet be postponed in the face of widespread violence around the country. Rival opposition parties have called for a boycott of the polls but PPP officials say their party intends to participate.

Many people had tipped Benazir's husband Asif Ali Zardari for the top spot, and in the unpredictable world of Pakistani politics that could still happen. An experienced politician, Zardari served as Environment Minister in his wife's second administration. But he is also a controversial figure in Pakistan, and has spent a total of 11 years in prison on various charges including blackmail and corruption, for which he earned the nickname "Mr. 10%." Supporters dismiss these charges, most of which have been thrown out of Pakistani courts (a few are still pending), as politically related mischief. "He's a strong man," says PPP Senator Awan. "All of us are controversial. Wasn't Benazir Bhutto? Wasn't Zulfikar Ali Bhutto? All those who don't accept the military role in politics are controversial. The charges are 100% unfounded and fake."

The young Bhutto, Benazir's only son, knows the dangers of the job he might be about to take on. Last year Benazir told a reporter that she hoped her three children would choose a different career. "My children have told me they are very worried about my safety," she said. "I understand those fears. But they are Bhuttos and we have to face the future with courage, whatever it brings."

Benazir Bhutto Last Moments Before Assassinated

Bhutto Killed - Are The Islamists Winning?

Pakistan on the brink

The imposition of a state of emergency by the military government of Pakistan on November 3, 2007, is nothing less than the thinly disguised imposition of martial law.

Following the declaration by General Pervez Musharraf’s government there was an immediate round up of opposition members and activists.

About 60 judges of the superior courts are under house arrest, their telephone lines cut off and heavily armed detachments of the police force encircling their houses.

Among them are 14 judges of the Supreme Court and 46 judges of high courts of four provinces. The Chief Justice of Pakistan, Mr. Iftekhar Choudhry was forcibly taken out from Supreme Court building by elements of the military High Court in a helicopter and also remains under house arrest.

Dear friends :

Pakistan is on the brink: unpopular president General Pervez Musharraf has imposed a state of emergency, sacked the Supreme Court, shut down the media and basic freedoms, and imprisoned democratic opposition leaders. The general blames his actions on an imagined coalition of terrorists and independent-minded judges -- but his real fear may be losing absolute power.

Elections are planned for January 2008 -- they must not be postponed. But martial law and the imprisonment of democratic opposition leaders don't make for a free and fair vote either. So we're calling on the international community -- particularly the US Congress, which has voted Musharraf billions of dollars in military aid over the last six years -- to use all its leverage for swift elections and restoring constitutional protections. Click below to sign our petition immediately, then tell your friends so they can do the same -

http://www.avaaz.org/en/emergency_pakistan

We just received this email from Asma Jahangir, head of the Pakistani Human Rights Commission and the UN's Special Rapporteur for freedom of religion worldwide. Now under house arrest in Lahore, she's one of many Pakistanis urgently asking the world community to raise our voice:

There is a strong crackdown on the press and lawyers... The Chief Justice is under house arrest (unofficially). The President of the Supreme Court Bar (Aitzaz Ahsan) and 2 former presidents, Mr. Muneer Malik and Tariq Mahmood have been imprisoned for one month under the Preventive Detention laws...

There are other scores political leaders who have also been arrested. Yesterday I was house arrested for 90 days... the President (who has lost his marbles) said that he had to clamp down on the press and the judiciary to curb terrorism. Those he has arrested are progressive, secular minded people, while the terrorists are offered negotiations and ceasefires.

Lawyers and civil society will challenge the government and the scene is likely to get uglier. We want friends of Pakistan to urge the US administration to stop all support of the instable dictator, as his lust for power is bringing the country close to a worse form of civil strife...

--Asma Jahangir
Lahore, Pakistan

General Musharraf claims that martial law is necessary to combat extremist terror. But it just doesn't add up. Musharraf retains strong links with the Pakistani Taliban (see PS below). His emergency powers are being directed only against the democratic opposition, free press and judiciary – just days before a scheduled ruling on whether Musharraf could run for president while remaining army chief. In an August poll, too, Pakistanis rated "ensuring an independent judiciary, free press and free elections" as their top priority.

Right now, leaders around the world are deciding how to respond. The General is dressing up his crackdown in the rhetoric of "anti-terrorism" because Musharraf and his military supporters depend on foreign military aid and international recognition to maintain their legitimacy. That's why we have to speak out now.

The world can't ignore the threat of chaos in Pakistan, or the voices of our fellow democrats there. Let's come together as we did on Burma, and move our governments to act. In these crucial early days, the voice of the world's people has tremendous power. Let's use it. Sign the petition and tell your friends today -

http://www.avaaz.org/en/emergency_pakistan

With hope,

Paul, Pascal, Galit, Ricken, Graziela, Ben and the whole Avaaz team

(Avaaz.org is an independent, not-for-profit global campaigning organization that works to ensure that the views and values of the world's people inform global decision-making.) (Avaaz means "voice" in many languages.))