Vote in key by-election - why vote ?

Voters in central Malaysia cast ballots today in a by-election that could embarrass the ruling coalition of Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, despite what looks to be a near-certain win.

The Barisan Nasional coalition has urged voters in central Pahang state to turn out for the poll despite a rare boycott by two opposition parties, in a bid to boost turnout and avoid a lacklustre showing for Abdullah's camp.

"We will ensure all go out to vote. If they haven't, we will go to their houses," ( threatening or forcing?) Deputy Premier Najib Razak said late Saturday.

"We will mobilise the machinery all-out until the last moment -- that's the Barisan Nasional instruction," he was quoted as saying by the Bernama state news agency.

Pahang has long been a BN stronghold, and a win is more or less assured for the coalition, which is targeting a majority of at least 3,000 votes in the rural seat of Batu Talam, with just 10,525 registered voters.

The seat in Pahang's state assembly fell vacant on December 27 after the ruling coalition's Tengku Paris Tengku Razlan died from cancer.

Contesting the by-election are the BN's Abdul Aziz Mat Kiram, 47, and 22-year-old independent candidate Ng Chee Pang.

The vote was initially seen as an early indication of support for Abdullah's government ahead of a general election which must be called by early 2009.

However, in the absence of an opposition candidate, political commentators are on the lookout for a reduced majority and poor turnout, which would spell trouble for the government.

Two leading opposition parties have boycotted the by-election, citing bias and possible vote fraud, and called for electoral reforms.

The move has confounded and infuriated coalition members, who have accused opposition leaders of cowardice.

Abdullah's son-in-law Khairy Jamaluddin said in a commentary published on Sunday in the New Straits Times that the lack of an opposition candidate would make the vote "frustrating and difficult" for the ruling coalition.

"It would be frustrating because of the absence of a real enemy," he wrote.

The result of this election is a foregone certainty. Barisan will win, no doubt about it. The importance of this by election, as a prelude to the general election expected later this year or next year, is that Barisan has to win convincingly , especially against a light weight, an unknown independent candidate.

There might be 2 scenarios:

1. Barisan wins, but voters turnout is low (less than 50%), or the independent manages to retain his deposits.

This will send a chilly reminder to Barisan members all over the country that not all is rosy, that the discontent in the country is not limited to urban areas.

However,the ordinary people might get something good out of this scenerio. Barisan top guns would realise that they need to adopt good policies to benefit the people. We might get the IPCMC eventually, there might be certain changes in the implementations of NEP, economic boosters might be used (mainly incresed public spending) to jump-start the retail economy and don’t be surprised that even petrol price might see a reduction. All these will benefit the little people like you and me.

2. In this second scenario, Barisan wins big. The BN candidate gets more that 4500 votes, voters turnout is fair (65% and above). BN morale in the whole country will be boosted and that of the opposition parties dampened.

In this second scenario, the worrying thing is that BN big guns might get complacent and therefore fail to address the problems causing the discontent of the people. We might never get the IPCMC and other reforms. In this case, BN wins big for the short term and might lose more in the long run.

So the time to this riddle is near. Only one more day an we will know the result.

Sonia Randhawa, the Executive Director of the Centre for Independent Journalism,
wrote to the Sun :

The Opposition boycott of the Batu Talam by-election could signify an important turning point in Malaysia's electoral history, coupled as it is with statements by the chairman of the Election Commission that cast doubt upon the fairness of the electoral process.

Elections are important. They are the cornerstone of power and legitimacy in this country. The winning of elections bestows upon the winning party (or parties) almost untrammelled power, and the legitimate exercise of this power has been justified on the grounds that the people have made their choice. This was the case even after the almost-defeat of Barisan Nasional (BN) in the 1999 General Election, when the Government came away with 56% of the vote. They won more than three-quarters of the seats, but the widespread discontent with BN was evident. And this was given the numerous concerns that the Opposition raised - from access to the media to the persistent problem of phantom voters. The disparity in 2004 was even greater, with 64% of the votes yielding 90% of the seats for the BN.

And here lies the problem. There is a major disconnect between the way Malaysians vote and the number of seats won by the contesting parties.

This is not a problem for the Opposition, or at least it is not just a problem for the Opposition, it is a problem involving at least a third of the electorate who are practically disenfranchised by our electoral system. Especially when the marginal role given the Opposition is taken into account - starting with their lack of access to public money, continuing through their neglected role in the legislative process and culminating in the disregarded check and balance function of Parliament(s) in Malaysia more generally. Occassional disenfranchisement of voters can be accommodated. But this is around a third of Malaysian voters, let's say, who have never had their voices heard in the national legislature, not even enough to prevent amendments to the Constitution.

Added to this is the problem that the elected Government is shielded by democracy and by the electoral process itself from being responsive to the needs of the people. Wanting a change of government, which is a legitimate aim (the sole aim really of the Opposition!) is seen as a crime. Executive power is exercised with few checks and balances, dissent is seen as seditious and the media kept on a tight rein.

The result of this can be a disenchantment with the electoral process, and with democracy itself. If democratic systems and our electoral processes do not result in a leadership that is responsive to the needs of the people, then people will find attempt other ways of filling these needs. A healthy development in this is the formation of "Bersih", a coalition for electoral reform.

Less healthily, however, there is an opting out of society, as seen by high crime rates, juvenile delinquency and a lack of respect for the institutions of the State. An example of the latter was the case of Mat Rempits throwing stones at police officers, but less striking examples include the numerous cases where civilians have broken the law apprehending criminals, such as beating up snatch theives.

The Opposition boycott of the Batu Talam by-election should be seen in this light. But the problems that the Oppostion are highlighting through this boycott are not only problems for the Opposition. They're a problem for the government as well. When the Prime Minister complains of lack of assistance from the people in implementing his plans, when the police are shown little respect, when corruption takes place, these are all signs that people do not recognise the government as being their government. They are not taking ownership over the institutions and policies of the government. And they are illustrating dissatisfaction, disenfranchisement in myriad small ways.

The Opposition and the Election Commission Chairperson's comments and actions are an opportunity for us to take stock of how are electoral system is working, how it is not working and to try and look at ways in which it can be improved. Regardless of political affiliation.

Update :

The Opposition's ploy to incite voters to boycott today's Batu Talam state by-election has failed, judging from the encouraging voter turnout at several polling stations, especially in Felda areas, said Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak today,Najib who visited several polling stations, was satisfied with the voter turnout since the start of polling at 8am.
(Bernama)

Related view :
Re-examining the Election Boycott - Infernal Ramblings of a Thoughtless Mind


Malaysia Batu Talam by election