01 December, 2006

A tale of two countries

Mahathir haunts trade talks

THE normalisation of relationships between Australia and Malaysia following the retirement in 2003 of Malaysian prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad never was going to be quick or simple.

In his 22 years' rule of Malaysia, Dr Mahathir's distrust and dislike of Australia was public and persistent.

Suspicion built up over a generation is not easily erased.

Also, as the Australian Prime Minister, John Howard, has found during a brief visit to Malaysia, Dr Mahathir continues to cast a dark shadow across Malaysian politics.

Mr Howard's visit was designed primarily to break down the remaining barriers and kick start free trade negotiations, fuse closer defence ties and boost bilateral trade.

His talks with the new Malaysian leader, Dato Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, who was in Australia in April, have been constructive but hardly ground breaking.

In retirement, Dr Mahathir continues to criticise free trade arrangements, arguing they deliver few benefits to Malaysia. Clearly, the power and influence of former Malaysian leaders is greater than the opinion of discarded or retired prime ministers here in Australia.

Even Dr Mahathir, however, cannot continue to ignore the realities. In a global economy, Malaysia is Australia's 11th largest trading partner.

In 2005-06, bilateral trade peaked at $9.3 billion. The Government estimates a free trade agreement with Malaysia could be worth nearly $2 billion to Australia in the next 20 years.

While Mr Howard's welcome was cordial rather than effusive, he was right to go - and Australia is right to persist with free trade negotiations despite being haunted by the ghost of Dr Mahathir.

Australia's PM agrees to disagree with Malaysia on Iraq


ALLIED occupation forces need to withdraw from Iraq so that the local people can rebuild their country, Malaysia's Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi told John Howard yesterday.

After the first Malaysia-Australia leadership meeting in Kuala Lumpur since 1996, Abdullah said the presence of foreign troops, particularly the US military, was "the cause of problems to the Iraqis".

The Malaysian PM, who is also chairman of the Organisation of the Islamic Conference, an umbrella group for Muslim countries, acknowledged that Australia and the US were trying to stabilise and rebuild Iraq but made clear he did not think that could be achieved without troop withdrawal.

"We should also pave the way ultimately that foreign forces will be leaving Iraq and leave the Iraqis to deal with the situation and to reconstruct their country," he said.

Mr Howard said it was accurate and honest to say Australia and Malaysia had different perspectives on the Iraq occupation.

"But we both recognise the importance of achieving stability in Iraq, we both recognise that the Iraqi people have gone through the pain of a democratic process, and we both recognise the need to see many countries as having responsibilities in relation to Iraq," he said.

In spite of their Iraq disagreement, the leaders agreed Australia and Malaysia needed to further strengthen their economic, diplomatic and security ties, and Mr Howard pronounced the bilateral relationship was now "as strong as it's ever been".

Australia and Malaysia may have widely divergent views on Iraq, but they both agree the root of the Middle East's problems is the issue of an independent Palestine, Australian Prime Minister John Howard said Thursday.

"It is right and fair to say that our perspectives on this matter (Iraq) are not the same," Howard said after an hour-long meeting with his Malaysian counterpart, Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.

"But we are good enough, old enough friends to respect and accept that we both recognize the importance of achieving stability in Iraq," Howard, who is on a three-day visit to Malaysia, told a joint news conference with Abdullah.

Howard, a staunch U.S. ally, defied public opposition to send 2,000 Australian troops to assist the 2003 invasion of Iraq, and he now maintains about 1,300 troops in and around Iraq.

Malaysia, which chairs the 57-nation Organization of the Islamic Conference, vocally opposed the U.S.-led invasion, and has repeatedly called for the swift withdrawal of coalition troops.

In remarks that appeared to show solidarity with Malaysia, Howard said Thursday that the root of the Middle East problem was the Palestinian issue.

"We both agreed that the heart of so many of the problems in the Middle East is the issue of Palestine ... ultimately a fair, two-state solution which provides a home to the Palestinians in which they can live in peace and security as well as an Israel which is free from harassment within the fence of an internationally recognized border," Howard said.

Abdullah reiterated Malaysia's call for foreign troops to pull out of Iraq, noting that Muslim countries and the international community should do more to help restore stability there.

"That should also pave the way out so that foreign forces should leave Iraq," Abdullah said, adding that this would allow Iraqis to deal with the reconstruction of their country.

Abdullah said he is "very, very concerned" by sectarian clashes that many fear are leading to a civil war in Iraq, but he acknowledged that the problem was "very difficult to resolve."

The prime minister said he recognized that the U.S. is trying to achieve peace in Iraq, but "circumstances may force them to take whatever action they may want."

"But what is important is that we all must be working with a sense of responsibility," Abdullah said, adding that he has raised the topic at OIC meetings and to individual leaders.

Howard said his discussions with Abdullah focused on bilateral issues, including a free trade area that is being negotiated. Malaysia was Australia's 11th-largest trading partner in 2005-2006, according to figures from Howard's office.

The two countries have not arrived at a deadline to conclude negotiations, Howard said, stressing that rushing through talks could be counterproductive.

Abdullah said officials on both sides "are working hard on it."

In recent years, Australia has had great success in signing free trade agreements in South-East Asia. First, there is the Singapore-Australia Free Trade Agreement, which has been great news for professional services. Then there is the Thailand-Australia Free Trade Agreement, which will enable more than three-quarters of Australian exports to Thailand to be tariff-free.

SAFTA and TAFTA have been forerunners to closer ties between Australia and South-East Asia; the Association of South-East Asian Nations recently invited Australia and New Zealand to explore closer economic links.

Malaysia is the next cab off the rank for bilateral talks with Canberra.

So what are the gains to Australia and Malaysia in a Malaysia-Australia free trade agreement?

Australia's senior trade commissioner in Kuala Lumpur, Peter Kane, singles out agribusiness, resources and professional services.

"Australia is the No. 1 supplier of international education in Malaysia and the No. 2 supplier of food," he says, "so we could make further progress in these sectors.

"Malaysia has great infrastructure, IT and increasing levels of tertiary education. Accordingly, Australian exporters are likely to do well in the Malaysian market."

Malaysia's IT sector is still strongly focused on the US, but according to Arlina Ariff, a senior economist at Bank Negara Malaysia (Malaysia's central bank), "intra-Asian trade has grown so strongly that this is less of a concern now".

Furthermore, Malaysia is investing in new sectors, Arlina says. "We are moving further up the value chain, particularly as the interior regions of China are playing a larger role in low-cost manufacturing," she says.

"Agribusiness, professional services, technical education and (Gulf States-related) financial services are now becoming more important in shaping Malaysia's economic future."

Malaysia's economic fundamentals are in good shape, says Arlina. Gross domestic product grew at 5.8 per cent last quarter, headline inflation is 3.1 per cent, and unemployment 3 per cent.

"Our growth rate is in the right range for a 'mature' developing economy, but we have to constantly adapt to the new challenges thrown up by globalisation," she says.

In many ways, Malaysia has a lot to be admired for. As well as bouncing back from the Asian financial crisis and the dotcom crash, it must be remembered that it is a fairly small country (of only 23 million — just a shade over Australia's population).

It is about the size of Queensland but it still has managed to become the 10th largest trading partner of the US. No doubt this makes Malaysia a good trading partner in the South-East Asian region. It also has strong links with the Middle East, particularly in Islamic finance.

Tim Harcourt is chief economist of the Australian Trade Commission and the author of Beyond our Shores.

THE FIGURES

Australian goods exports to Malaysia: $2450 million (key sectors: copper, aluminium, milk and cream, coal), 2005-06

Australian services exports to Malaysia: $1050 million (key sectors: education, tourism)

Australian-Malaysian two-way trade: $9292 million, 2005-06

Key growth sectors: agribusiness, education, resources, professional services

Number of Australian businesses exporting to Malaysia: 3285 (behind Singapore on 5612 but ahead of Indonesia on 2511 and Thailand on 2219).


Malaysia and Australia must focus on new areas for collaborations within the framework of cooperation which would stand the test of time and based on mutual trust and confidence, Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi said Thursday night.

The Prime Minister said despite the ups and downs in bilateral relations between the two countries, the solid foundation of cooperation, particularly in matters of defence, education and trade, have remained strong.

Speaking at the official dinner in honour of Australian Prime Minister John Howard, Abdullah said he was convinced that both countries could also add value to the collaborations that already exists. Howard is on a three-day visit to Malaysia.

"We should pursue a policy of openness in building beneficial relations with each other in these areas.

"On both sides, we may need to encourage the private sectors of both countries to do more between themselves. I am sure the governments on both sides are ready to interact with the private sectors to achieve this purpose," he said.

Citing the education sector as an example, he said, both countries could expand their cooperation by encouraging greater collaborations between Malaysian and Australian universities.

Abdullah said while Australia would continue to be a popular destination for young Malaysians seeking quality tertiary education, Malaysia had also poised itself as a hub for education and learning.

"Some Australian universities have already established their campuses here in Malaysia. We would like to welcome more Australians to study in this country," he said, adding that such a move would enhance the people-to-people relations between the two countries.

Abdullah also suggested that the two countries could have more exchanges among parliamentarians, increase fellowship programmes involving think-tanks, media and civil society.

"I am certain these can serve to build bridges and enhance dialogues and understanding between our people and cultures," he said.

On trade, Abdullah said both countries should continue to work for increased trade and investment as there was still a lot of room for expansion.

He hoped Australia would consider allowing more Malaysian agricultural produce to enter the country since it was currently the second largest food supplier to Malaysia.

The Prime Minister was happy to note that both countries shared similar aspirations on many regional and international issues and even displayed friendship and respect for each other when agreeing to disagree on some issues.

"The important thing, however, is our complete agreement on the need to work together to establish stability, peace and prosperity, not only in our immediate region but also in the world as a whole.

"Indeed, we must continue to work closely within the bilateral, regional and multilateral framework not only to advance the collective interests of the international community but also to safeguard our respective national interests," he added.



PM agrees to disagree with Malaysia on Iraq - The Australian News
Australian PM voices solidarity with Malaysia, says Palestinian conflict must be resolved - Herald Tribune
Mahathir haunts trade talks - news.com Austarlia
Gains for Australia in signing trade deal with Malaysia - The Age
M'sia, Aussie Must Focus On New Areas Of Collaborations - Abdullah - Bernama


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Inconvenient truths in Singapore
By Shawn W Crispin

Light a candle for Singapore's shackled political opposition.

A Singaporean court last week sentenced Chee Soon Juan, secretary general of the Singapore Democratic Party, to five weeks in prison for speaking in public without a government permit while campaigning for May's general elections, where the ruling People's Action Party (PAP) went on to win 82 of 84 parliamentary seats.

It marks the fourth time that Singapore's authoritarian government has detained Chee for expressing his political views, including a nine-day sentence earlier in the year for questioning the judiciary's independence, and two terms in 1999 and 2002 for speaking without state permission. He now also faces criminal charges for attempting to leave Singapore for an international conference on democracy-related topics without official permission.

This year Chee and his party were declared bankrupt after he refused to pay S$500,000 (US$322,000) in court-ordered libel payments to former prime ministers Lee Kuan Yew and Goh Chok Tong for comments he made insinuating senior-level government complicity in a corruption scandal at the National Kidney Foundation. Singapore's leaders have over the years been alleged by human rights groups such as Amnesty International to use defamation suits to silence and bankrupt political opponents.

But the current campaign against Chee is clearly more an act of political desperation than just another example of the PAP's trademark repression. Six months after its resounding electoral win, the PAP-led government for the first time in decades looks especially vulnerable to political challenge - though the state-controlled media, including the English-language Straits Times newspaper, have predictably failed to report the story faithfully.

Unprecedented hard questions are being raised about the government's management of state funds, particularly in the light of recent badly botched foreign investments made in Thailand and Malaysia. Chee's critical commentaries, including postings on his political party's website, have hit hard on that issue and, judging by his recent imprisonment, have seemingly hit an open official nerve.

Chee's website reads like the inquiring, independent news media that national founder and current Mentor Minister Lee Kuan Yew has never allowed to take root in the tightly controlled island state. Chee's unrelenting criticism about Singapore's widening income gap, the opaque management of the Central Provident Fund, and the secrecy surrounding the government's use and investment of national reserves, has attracted a large online audience of young, tech-savvy voters fed up with the state's monopoly on local news.

He has also inconveniently hit upon the touchy subject of why the PAP-led government has historically taxed the people so much and yet spent so little on social programs.

Prophetic charges

Many of Chee's charges now seem prophetic after the debacle of state-run investment arm Temasek's US$1.9 billion purchase of Shin Corporation, which was made in apparent violation of Thailand's foreign-ownership laws and has incurred the Singaporean state investment arm a US$1.3 billion paper loss due to sharply declining share prices of the conglomerate's various subsidiaries, according to media reports.


Temasek could also be found liable by Thai courts for 90 billion baht (US$2.43 billion) worth of damages related to the controversial amendment of Shin Corp subsidiary iTV's original operating concession with the Thai government.

Temasek, the Singaporean government's foreign-investment vehicle, and Government Investment Corp (GIC), which invests national reserves, control well over US$230 billion in undisclosed regional assets. The recent financial slip has worried some Singaporeans about the health of the nation's finances - which are a tightly held state secret - and raised harder questions about the quality of Temasek's management and internal controls.

The International Monetary Fund has persistently recommended that the Singaporean government disclose publicly more information about its investment holdings and their rates of return - a request that the senior Lee has unswervingly declined. Lee Kuan Yew and Lee Hsien Loong head GIC's executive board; Temasek's executive director, Ho Ching, is the junior Lee's wife.

And the Lees are highly sensitive to the sort of criticism Chee has publicly aired about the family's concentration of power over the national finances. The Lees in 2004 sued The Economist for libel and won an apology and damages worth US$230,000 in a Singaporean court after the respected international publication made critical references to Ho Ching's appointment to the top of Temasek.

More recently, the Lees banned and filed defamation charges against the Hong Kong-based Far Eastern Economic Review over its publishing of a critical interview with Chee. The Dow Jones-owned FEER and its sister publication the Asian Wall Street Journal (AWSJ) had for more than a decade kowtowed to the senior Lee by refraining from critical political news coverage, and after his prodding even appointed a relatively inexperienced Singaporean national to the editorship of AWSJ.

Dow Jones' current grandstanding under a press-freedom banner should be taken with a big grain of salt considering that the financially beleaguered US news organization in 2004 offered to sell the FEER to the Singaporean government just months before it downsized and fired all of the publication's staff, according to former and current senior Dow Jones managers.

That's why Chee's bold commentaries - including his critical opinions and probing analysis about the Lee family's unchecked control over government that even big, powerful, multinational news organizations have for financial reasons eschewed - are so offensive to the Lee family and at the same time so important to Singapore's hoped-for democratic future.

Closed society

Chee's detention represents a major setback for earlier hopes that the political environment would loosen up under Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong. Upon taking over the premiership in August 2004, he promised in an important speech to move Singapore toward a more "open society" and spoke about his desire to nurture a so-called "X-factor" that would engender more creativity and help to set the island state apart from its regional neighbors.

Apart from allowing for more public prostitution, Lee has done little to actualize his "X-factor" vision and step out from under his father's still-looming authoritarian shadow. Sources close to the government say the junior Lee's leadership style and policy proposals have wholly failed to inspire the state bureaucracy. One prominent Singaporean analyst, requesting anonymity because of fears of legal retribution, refers to the junior Lee as "a genetically diluted version of his father".

Chip off the old block, Lee's government is now moving to tighten laws governing the Internet and public gatherings, including penalties for as many as 19 undisclosed new offenses and an expansion of potential penalties for 19 other existing offenses. If passed, the legislation will greatly expand the government's already severe legal means to crack down on political dissent, particularly in cyberspace.

At a recent international conference on "Digital Terror" held in Singapore, government officials justified the proposed legislation on their concerns about terrorists using the Internet to plan attacks and the broad need for governments to deal with such use, according to news reports. But the real motivation of the proposed new draconian laws is to snuff out through legal threat the critical political chatter over the Internet that Chee has helped to popularize.

All of this demonstrates to some Singaporeans that the handover of power from senior to junior Lee is not going as smoothly as planned, and raises profound questions about whether the tightly orchestrated political transition will stick once Lee Kuan Yew, now 83, finally passes from the scene.

Recently released economic statistics indicate that a fast-widening wealth gap is undermining public faith in the government's policies, which in turn threatens to erode the political and social stability that has until now underpinned Singapore's laissez-faire economic-development model. Rather than promoting more democracy and public dialogue to address the island state's mounting economic challenges, Prime Minister Lee is instead reverting to his father's well-worn - and, judging by Internet chat rooms, increasingly resented - repressive tactics.

A small group of Chee's supporters have for the past week held a nightly candlelight vigil in front of the Queenstown Remand Prison where he and two other political prisoners are being held. Fears of violating strict laws that prohibit public gatherings without official permission have no doubt kept many other democratic-minded Singaporeans away from the vigil. But as the elder Lee's candle burns out, and the younger Lee's candle burns dimly, from behind bars Chee's is the beacon of Singapore's democratic aspirations.

(Shawn W Crispin is Asia Times Online's Southeast Asia editor.)


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