17 December, 2006

Cut, not run

US Democrats are not inherently averse to wars; Lyndon Johnson led the Vietnam War. Cut and run approach in Iraq would stigmatize the Democrats. Bush’s military consultants will now offer a slightly new policy in Iraq, and Democrats, if withdrew, would be blamed for fiasco. Bush’s new strategy might have worked, but Democrats supposedly did not give it a chance. The US military also warn against the withdrawal, and the increased violence in Iraq would be blamed on the Democrats and withdrawal, rather than on Bush and invasion. It is unlikely that the Democrats will now proceed with wholesale withdrawal of the US troops from Iraq.

The US training of the Iraqi police against insurgents is a sham. Iraqi police is very well trained against the armed opposition. The Baathist police. The US might not like that institution, but building another from scratch in limited time is impossible. Strong police apparatus cannot work in semi-democratic Iraq the US tries to shape. Efficient police needs strong Iraqi leader, a strongmen. The only option is to restore the Baathist army and police. Keep the mid- and lower-level commanders, change a few heads to keep the appearance of reform, change the name, and let the reformed Baathists deal ruthlessly and illiberally with the insurgents.

In any case, the sectarian violence in Iraq is not the US business. Let the Iraqis kill each other out, if they want to. The West is only concerned that Iraq does not develop WMD. If the Iraqi government would be unable to eradicate terrorist training camps, the US could eliminate them with air strikes.

The best scenario is giving the Shia part of Iraq to Iran in exchange for abrogating the nuclear program, creating a country for Kurds and resettling the troublesome Kurds from Turkey there, and leaving the Sunni Iraq as a minor state. Israel will enjoy the modern precedent of population transfer, applicable to Israeli Arabs. Iranians will keep the terrorists out of the Shia area, like they now keep Hezbollah largely out of Iran. Muslims will get a lesson: messing with the US left mighty Iraq dismembered.

- By Obadiah Shoher

(Obadiah Shoher's blog. Obadiah - an anonymous Israeli politician - writes extremely controversial articles about Israel, the Middle East politics, and terrorism.

Shoher is equally critical of Jewish and Muslim myths, and advocates political rationalism instead of moralizing.
Google banned our site from the AdWords, Yahoo blocked most pages, and Amazon deleted all reviews of Obadiah's book, Samson Blinded: A Machiavellian Perspective on the Middle East Conflict.
Nevertheless, 170,000 people from 78 countries read the book.
Various Internet providers ban us periodically, but you can look up the site on search engines. The mirror www.samsonblinded.com/blog currently works.)


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1 Comments:

Blogger Danny said...

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December 24, 2006 8:31 AM  

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