Asli backs down over NEP data
ASLI Admits Report Did Not Reflect The True Picture On Equity
The Asian Strategy and Leadership Institute (ASLI) said today that a report on bumiputera corporate equity which had drawn widespread criticism did not fairly reflect the true picture of total equity ownership by bumiputeras in Malaysia.
Its president, Mirzan Mahathir, said that on re-examining the methodology and conclusions of the report, "Asli has concluded that there are shortcomings in assumption and calculation that led to conclusions that cannot be vigorously justified."
Mirzan also said that Asli deeply regretted the hurt and confusion felt by all Malaysians following the report by its Centre of Public Policy Studies on the bumiputera corporate equity ownership.
"As the 30 per cent ownership of Malaysian corporate equity by bumiputeras is one of the key targets of the NEP (National Economic Policy), it is important to have a reliable methodology to measure the government's success in meeting the target," he said in a statement here.
The centre's report that the estimated bumiputera equity ownership in public-listed companies might be as high as 45 per cent of total equity traded on the Malaysian bourse had been disputed by many.
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, in commenting on the issue last Thursday, rejected the findings as baseless and inaccurate as several indicators used by the centre were irrelevant.
"This report and its reaction serve as a reminder of the unique qualities of our beloved nation. We humbly take all criticisms levelled at Asli with an open heart in our quest to improve ourselves in order to serve Malaysia better," Mirzan said.
He said that in its 13-year history, Asli had never projected an agenda other than to help create a better society through the promotion of strategic thinking and leadership qualities.
Mirzan also said that the report was part of the centre's set of recommendations to the Malaysian government for consideration for the Ninth Malaysia Plan submitted last March.
"The report has ignited public debate on the subject which we hope will lead to a better understanding of the merits of the current methodology. All methodologies are at best good estimates of the true situation and due to the importance of the threshold to the public, should be as transparent as possible," he said.
Dr Lim Teck Ghee, director of Centre for Public Policy Studies (CPPS), has resigned after ASLI backed down under severe intimidation from parties which disputed its findings on Bumiputra's equity share of the country's wealth.
Dr Lim says he is resigning because he cannot agree with ASLI president's statement in justifying the back down, and that there is a need to defend the position and integrity of independent and non-partisan scholarship.
In his resignation statement, Dr Lim says, as Director of the CPPS, he takes full responsibility, and stands by the findings of the study and the other studies that were submitted in a comprehensive report to the Government on the 9th Malaysia Plan in February 2006.
However, Dr Lims adds that since he cannot agree with Mirzan's statement, and because of the need to defend the position and integrity of independent and non-partisan scholarship, he will be stepping down from his position as Director at the end of October. Quote:
Dr Lim is a former UN regional advisor and World bank senior political scientist. He is also a recipient of international academic awards.
M.Bakri Musa : Delaying UMNO’s Elections: Exchanges With Din Merican
Summary: DM: Abdullah’s delaying UMNO’s elections is politically shrewd; it would enable him to consolidate his position within the party and buy time to mend the economy. It may however be a case of too little, too late. He has neither the political will nor the leadership skills to execute such a quick turnaround.
MBM: We are headed for a turbulent patch, and the captain’s skill is severely wanting. Fortunately Malaysia is sufficiently advanced that it could sustain itself on automatic pilot. Let us hope that Abdullah just stands there and not do something, especially if is something stupid.
Dear Bakri:
You may have read that Pak Lah postponed UMNO’s triennial Leadership Convention, scheduled for next year, till after the next general election. He said, “This was to ensure undivided and full concentration was accorded to the general election,” and added, “[T]his is a procedure and policy of the party and has been done twice previously.… [It is] beneficial for the party as it could give all full concentration to national development and implementing projects in the interest of the rakyat.”
His move did not surprise me. I hope he would not defer next month’s UMNO General Assembly. He is being politically pragmatic; he fully expects the delegates to be rough on him for “sleeping on the job,” as exemplified by Zaid Ibrahim’s recent comments. Similar tough comments have come from Shahrir Samad on the ECM Libra-Avenue Securities merger involving Abdullah’s son-in-law, Khairy Jamaluddin, and his close associate, Kalimullah Hassan.
Tengku Razaleigh too made some strong remarks especially regarding the implementation of the 9MP. In an interview he said, “[N]othing has happened even in the 9MP. None of the projects has got off the ground. You name me one.”
Abdullah had neglected the economy; he had been too busy enjoying the perks of office by his frequent foreign trips and ceremonial engagements with ASEAN, OIC and NAM. He was also distracted by the personal problems with his late wife. He now wants to buy some time to revive the economy before facing his party and the people in 2008.
He is just deluding himself into believing that he could execute a turnaround in the economy in such a short time. He just does not have what it takes to lead. He is simply not credible and does not have the political will to make things happen, and happen quickly.
Razaleigh had this to say on Badawi’s attempts to reform the system, “Well, we can wait until 300 years later. I’m not saying it’s not going to happen, but it’s going to take a long time.… You talk about fighting corruption – you may catch one or two and that’s it but so many more are corrupt. But let us get on with something for the people – to get jobs and investments while you carry on tinkering with all these things which are going to take time.” In short, we need to jumpstart the nation’s economy and boost investors’ confidence.
In the short term delaying the leadership convention is a shrewd move. It would enable him to purge the party of Mahathir’s supporters. Badawi hopes that with his team in place and the economy on the mend, he can protect his legacy and be re-elected.
To me his latest maneuver is a manifestation of his weakness within the party. He can no longer hide that fact. Criticisms from Tun Mahathir and others have obviously taken their toll. Badawi’s postponing the leadership conference is merely an attempt at trying to capitalize on his incumbency.
Whether it will work remains to be seen. It would depend on the economy and investors’ confidence. It would be tough as the IMF-World Bank projects slower growth globally in 2007 and 08. He may not be able carry the civil servants with him this time, as he had denied them their pay raise. The country is also hobbled by rising prices of basic foods. Price controls succeeded only in more rules and regulations leading to supply bottlenecks, price distortions, and corruption.
Fortunately oil prices have eased, giving him room to reduce the pump price if he so chooses. The recent substantial oil price hikes were very unpopular, as expected. The surprise was that his advisors did not anticipate that!
With slower global growth hurting our exports, Abdullah will have no choice but to stimulate the domestic sector. Fortunately he has some flexibility here as the fiscal deficit has improved. The question is whether the effects of such stimulation would be felt by election time. It may be a case of too little, too late.
He may be politically astute in postponing the UMNO elections but good politics alone would not compensate for his inept handling of the economy. He should seek wider counsel by listening to his party elders, the business community, and the struggling men and women in the Malay street instead.
That is my take, what is yours?
Thanks, Din
M. Bakri Musa’s reply:
Dear Din:
It is hard to find any silver lining to this dark cloud that is Abdullah Badawi. You are being charitable to him, and that is appropriate during this Ramadan season. We are in for turbulent weather ahead, so better buckle-up.
Our pilot may have spent decades in the cockpit, but only as the flight engineer or first officer. In the strict Asian tradition of deferring to authority, he is used to only taking orders from the captain but never having to make the tough decisions. Thus far he is content enjoying being adulated as the captain, and marveling at the controls available to him.
He barely understands those levers except at the mechanical level. Move that yoke towards him and the plane will go up; push it away and the plane will nose down. He does not comprehend the underlying physics or aerodynamics.
Fortunately the modern aircraft is well designed and sturdy, with many redundant systems and failsafe features such that even a monkey could not crash it. The only design not factored in is for some maniac intent on crashing the machine onto a tower.
Malaysia is sufficiently advanced with a robust private sector. Malaysians are also more educated and better informed. The nation is akin to a 747 jet, even an idiot could not to crash it; only a determined crazy jihadist could. Badawi is closer to the former, not the latter. Malaysia should count its blessings in that respect.
Abdullah’s courtiers are content humoring their man, and he is enthralled with being a “show captain.” That would prevent him from wrecking too much havoc. Malaysia has an adequate autopilot to pull it through the rough patches. It would not be pretty, but survivable.
Malaysians may be exasperated with Badawi but I do not envisage a Thailand solution. Malaysians are too smart to let that happen.
I am ever mindful that with all the criticisms heaped upon him, Abdullah might just be tempted to do something just to show that he is in control. The instinct would be to, “Just don’t stand there, do something!” That would be dangerous as he could wreck considerable damage by doing something inappropriate. I would rather that he would not do anything but just stand there!
Unfortunately while Abdullah is enthralled with being the tenth sultan, his family, the “Fourth Floor boys,” and their cronies are busy plundering the nation.
There is of course a world of difference between merely surviving and thriving. If Vietnam were to thrive while Malaysia merely survived, then the knives would be out. By then however the old man would be thinking of his retirement and the Hereafter. A few perks and a Tunship, and he could be easily be persuaded to leave, especially if we promise him a royal send off!
I do not share your optimism, or more correctly your hope, on Badawi. I am however optimistic on Malaysians. They will continue ahead regardless of what the government does or does not do. Of course it would be better if the government were there to spur and help them.
Abdullah is secure in his ignorance. We should however not let up in our criticisms. Eventually only his courtier and cheerleaders would think that their man is donned in samping sutra. Everyone else could plainly see that he is wrapped in only tattered bark loincloth, essentially naked.
Malaysia survived the communist insurgency and the May 1969 riot; it will also survive Badawi’s ineptness. The magnitude of the lost opportunity would be significant, and would be borne primarily by today’s young. It is this that angers me most, and spurs me to be tough on his leadership, or rather lack of one.
Badawi's interfaith talk faces test at home
(A feature published in Aljazeera Net on Tuesday 03 October 2006)
Days after Pope Benedict XVI quoted a Byzantine emperor linkening Islam with violence, Abdullah Badawi, the Malaysian prime minister, landed in Finland to discuss his country's success in the areas of race relations and inter-faith issues at the Sixth Asia-Europe Meeting.
The invitation was extended months in advance. But given the divisive turn of events and his position as chairman of the Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC), Badawi's presence was all the more apt.
He delivered a speech titled Dialogue among Cultures and Civilisations in which he focused on the eroding trust between the West and the Muslim world.
Badawi is also one of the main proponents of Islam hadhari (civilisational Islam), a political and ideological interpretation of the faith that stresses moderation and technological and economic competitiveness.
Malaysia is among the world's most stable and prosperous Muslim nations. And his style is by most accounts a refreshing change from that of his predecessor Mahathir Mohamed.
Mahathir was known for his tirades against the West and Jews - for clumping the world into dualistic entities based on ethnicity and religion.
Breaching the divide
This, say observers, puts Badawi in a position to be bridge-builder at a critical moment in Muslim-Western relations.
Kishore Mahbubani, dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, said: "He has the perfect temperament for the job. He is an open, understanding, genial person.
"He naturally builds trust and confidence wherever he goes. To be a bridge builder you need that kind of personality."
The question remains, however, whether Badawi will rise up to be that indispensable voice of moderation.
Ethnic and religious tensions appear to be intensifying in his own country. In July, Badawi seemed to side with Muslim hardliners by forestalling calls by a coalition of NGOs which want the Malaysian constitution - which guarantees equality and freedom of worship - to become the supreme law of the land.
The Sharia (Islamic law) courts have recently taken primacy over civil courts in a number of controversial court decisions. This has raised fears among Malaysia's 40% non-Muslim population.
Meanwhile, Islam hadhari, with its emphasis on education and development, has been praised by Muslims and non-Muslims as a deterrent of extremism and viable instrument of reconciliation between Islam and the West. But as with many of Badawi's policies, theory has lacked follow-through; observers worry that hardliners are starting to derail Malaysia's traditionally moderate brand of Islam.
Doubts raised
After the Danish cartoon controversy in February, Malaysians took to the streets brandishing signs that read, "Long live Islam. Destroy Denmark. Destroy Israel. Destroy George Bush. Destroy America." And in July, Badawi's son-in-law and close political ally Khairy Jamaluddin, led a protest in front of the US embassy in which dozens of American and Israeli flags were burned.
These developments raise doubts as to whether Badawi can be an international bridge-builder, said parliamentary backbencher Zaid Ibrahim: "We're not emulating the success story in Malaysia itself."
Zaharom Nain, political analyst and associate professor of journalism at the University Sains Malaysia School of Communications, says people are becoming sceptical of Badawi's efficacy.
"He has made a lot of promises, but people are sceptical whether it is just his public relations people coming up within these things [Islam hadhari].
"He has not delivered on a number of his promises at home, and that raises questions of how effective he will be internationally. He has not backed the talk with much walk."
Others argue that Badawi is working slowly but steadily toward his goals, and even where he may be falling short, domestic policies should not be confused with international relations.
International efforts
Internationally, Badawi has the ear of a wide array of voices. During the UN General Assembly in New York last week Bill Clinton, the former US president, and a group of NGOs met Abdullah to see ways to narrow the divide between Islam and the West.
Days earlier he met Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian president, at the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) summit in Havana, Cuba.
Badawi raised a few eyebrows for not repudiating Ahmadinejad's calls at an OIC conference that Malaysia hosted, when Ahmadinejad repeated his call for Israel's destruction; and likewise when he appeared on Malaysia's state-controlled newspaper covers smiling and shaking hands with Ahmadinejad.
Mahbubani noted Badawi's predicament. "To expect an Islamic leader to defend Israel is political suicide."
It is a point not apparently lost on Western leaders. Badawi's reticence and symbolic posturing has not seemed to impair relations with the West. And where it may be raising doubts as to where his heart is, Badawi has been careful to strike a balance in his movements and rhetoric.
He has expressed support for Washington's diplomatic offensive against Iran. And on the sidelines of the Asia-Europe Meeting (Asem) summit, Badawi held bilateral talks with key world leaders including Lee Hsien Loong, the Singaporean prime minister; Jacques Chirac, the French president; German Chancellor Angela Merkel; Romano Prodi, the Italian prime minister; Wen Jiabao, the Chinese prime minister; and Junichiro Koizumi, then the Japanese prime minister.
Badawi suggested at Asem that Asia and Europe establish a system of intelligence sharing to monitor terrorist travel and financing. At the conference Badawi also reiterated Malaysia's offer to contribute peacekeepers to the ceasefire in Lebanon.
Islam and the West
Elsewhere, Badawi has said the West and Islam must foster greater respect if they are to reconcile their differences.
"The demonisation of Islam and the vilification of Muslims, there is no denying, is widespread within mainstream Western society," he said at an international conference early this year, adding that Muslims must resist "sweeping denunciation of Christians, Jews and the West".
"The West should treat Islam the way it wants Islam to treat the West and vice versa. They should treat each other as equals."
Zaharom believes that many in Malaysia are hoping Abdullah succeeds in improving Islam-West relations. "On that plain of Islam and West relations, there is a great need for a bridge to be built," he told Aljazeera.net.
Nevertheless, some believe Muslim societies should also look inward for solutions.
Chandra Muzaffar, a Malaysian political scientist and president of the International Movement for a Just World (JUST), says: "At this time, what we need is honest self-introspection."
To Market, To Market
If markets are any measure, Kim Jong-Il has tweaked the world’s nose again
Asia’s financial markets have largely shrugged off news of North Korea’s nuclear testing gambit. They just don’t appear to believe that the communist state’s latest machinations are the major threat to regional, let alone world, peace that screaming news headlines across the planet suggest.
In Japan, perhaps more nervous than even South Korea about Kim Jong-Il’s possession of a nuke, markets remained markedly steady, with the benchmark Nikkei average closing up slightly, by 0.25 percent. Even the South Korean market is down less than 2% after two days of post-bomb trading. Gold and oil jumped briefly but otherwise the event was just a blip on trading screens. Shares in other markets across Asia closed mostly higher, bouncing back from some severe bomb-driven losses yesterday, dealers said.
In some cases, market analysts were almost blithe. Economist Sharmila Whelan of CLSA Asia Pacific Markets in Hong Kong, wrote in a short analysis Tuesday morning that she is more concerned with South Korea’s macroeconomics, with business data declining for a second month. In Tokyo, companies supplying equipment to Japan’s Self-Defence Force climbed on the promise of more contracts.
This kind of reaction suggests that so far Kim Jong Il has been correct in his gamble that he can raise the stakes without setting off a reaction that would de-stabilise the peninsula, the region or the world. The fact is that many assumed Pyongyang already had the capability to make a bomb, but viewed it as part bargaining chip and part last-ditch defense in the event that anybody tries to achieve regime change by force.
North Korea’s claim to have tested a weapon raises the possibility of five different scenarios for Malcolm Wood of Morgan Stanley – regime collapse, direct control by China over North Korea, a regional arms race, resumption of the stalled six-party talks or a return to the status quo.
For Wood, “Talks and aid have demonstrably failed to date, while US military protection makes an arms race seem unnecessary. More importantly, a return to the status quo would imply another failure of commitment by the global community to successfully resolve the nuclear weapons ambition of a so-called ‘rogue state.’ On the other hand, regime collapse could prove an expensive outcome, especially for South Korea; hence we view increased Chinese involvement in North Korea as the most likely outcome. Were this to lead to a more moderate, outward-looking government in North Korea, it could be a positive development for regional markets, and for South Korea in particular.”
Of course, Kim could still be proved wrong. The additional sanctions that will now be forthcoming under UN auspices may create such hardship that the regime would implode. However, given how much it has already suffered the populace is unlikely to rebel now. A split in the ranks of the ruling elite is more likely, but even that is unlikely to coalesce around the nuclear issue, a matter of pride for most North Koreans, and some in the south too.
The international anger is more from frustration than anything else. Military action is ruled out both by China and the fact that the US has too many battles on its hands right now. And as far as nuclear issues are concerned, Washington is far more focused on Iran. China not only remembers the Korean War, in which it sent a million soldiers across the Yalu River, but also has a mutual defense pact with Pyongyang dating to 1961. It may want out of that but escape isn’t easy.
As much as anything, top US government officials are angry because Kim, as he has repeatedly done in the past, has demonstrated the utter futility of American refusal to deal directly with a country identified as a member of President George Bush’s Axis of Evil in 2002. Engagement could probably have headed off the bomb. As Gideon Rachman pointed out in an astute column in the 10 October Financial Times, the only member of the Axis of Evil (North Korea, Iran and Iraq) that the US ended up attacking was Iraq, which is the one without a nuclear weapon.
South Korea resents the failure of its sunshine diplomacy, Japan the fact that newly announced Prime Minister Shinzo Abe only last week, before he went to China, made a big issue of seeking to stop the Korean bomb. China is upset because it has been ignored by the ultranationalist Koreans and frustrated that it is stuck giving some economic support to the regime in fear of either chaos or losing all influence if it doesn’t.
The bottom line for markets is that proliferation in broad terms is unstoppable and only really dangerous if another power is absolutely set on stopping it, as in the case of Iran but not North Korea.
Given the US nuclear umbrella in the region Kim has created facts which are militarily insignificant. But they are likely to be politically effective, or at least to result in a continuation of the status quo and a regional standoff. The development of nuclear weapons by North Korea has been the foundation for a supposed crisis for the past dozen or more years as major powers have tried to figure out what to do about Kim’s adventures.
Markets apparently are assuming that after much noise and breast-beating, there will be an attempt to stop Kim expanding his arsenal or selling his bomb technology. In which case, talks are inevitable. And even if Kim's regime is somehow overthrown, any successor government is bound to use the nuke as a bargaining chip, something Kim has taught his starveling country to do for years.
In reality NK is a small, weak state surrounded by powers that have not been able to control what he does at home but are more than capable of keeping North Korea from being a real menace to anything other than non-proliferation, which is anyway already largely a dead letter thanks to nuclear weapons in the hands of Israel, India and Pakistan.
Markets can be badly wrong, of course, particularly if, as now, they continue to be buoyed by an onrush of international liquidity that allows dodgy Chinese banks to launch record-breaking initial public offerings, as ICBC did Monday. But investors might do better worrying about ICBC than about Kim Jong Il's latest and very successful effort to hit the headlines and frustrate President George W. Bush.
CPPS NINTH MALAYSIA PLAN ASLI bumiputera corporate equity Mirzan Mahathir Malaysia Abdullah Ahmad Badawi
The Asian Strategy and Leadership Institute (ASLI) said today that a report on bumiputera corporate equity which had drawn widespread criticism did not fairly reflect the true picture of total equity ownership by bumiputeras in Malaysia.
Its president, Mirzan Mahathir, said that on re-examining the methodology and conclusions of the report, "Asli has concluded that there are shortcomings in assumption and calculation that led to conclusions that cannot be vigorously justified."
Mirzan also said that Asli deeply regretted the hurt and confusion felt by all Malaysians following the report by its Centre of Public Policy Studies on the bumiputera corporate equity ownership.
"As the 30 per cent ownership of Malaysian corporate equity by bumiputeras is one of the key targets of the NEP (National Economic Policy), it is important to have a reliable methodology to measure the government's success in meeting the target," he said in a statement here.
The centre's report that the estimated bumiputera equity ownership in public-listed companies might be as high as 45 per cent of total equity traded on the Malaysian bourse had been disputed by many.
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, in commenting on the issue last Thursday, rejected the findings as baseless and inaccurate as several indicators used by the centre were irrelevant.
"This report and its reaction serve as a reminder of the unique qualities of our beloved nation. We humbly take all criticisms levelled at Asli with an open heart in our quest to improve ourselves in order to serve Malaysia better," Mirzan said.
He said that in its 13-year history, Asli had never projected an agenda other than to help create a better society through the promotion of strategic thinking and leadership qualities.
Mirzan also said that the report was part of the centre's set of recommendations to the Malaysian government for consideration for the Ninth Malaysia Plan submitted last March.
"The report has ignited public debate on the subject which we hope will lead to a better understanding of the merits of the current methodology. All methodologies are at best good estimates of the true situation and due to the importance of the threshold to the public, should be as transparent as possible," he said.
Dr Lim Teck Ghee, director of Centre for Public Policy Studies (CPPS), has resigned after ASLI backed down under severe intimidation from parties which disputed its findings on Bumiputra's equity share of the country's wealth.
Dr Lim says he is resigning because he cannot agree with ASLI president's statement in justifying the back down, and that there is a need to defend the position and integrity of independent and non-partisan scholarship.
In his resignation statement, Dr Lim says, as Director of the CPPS, he takes full responsibility, and stands by the findings of the study and the other studies that were submitted in a comprehensive report to the Government on the 9th Malaysia Plan in February 2006.
However, Dr Lims adds that since he cannot agree with Mirzan's statement, and because of the need to defend the position and integrity of independent and non-partisan scholarship, he will be stepping down from his position as Director at the end of October. Quote:
I hope the public space opened up by the Centre’s work on this particular, as well as other important, issues will be expanded on and vigorously defended by others. It is the fundamental right of the Malaysian public to question all government statistics and policies, more so when these are not transparent or defensible.
Dr Lim is a former UN regional advisor and World bank senior political scientist. He is also a recipient of international academic awards.
**********
M.Bakri Musa : Delaying UMNO’s Elections: Exchanges With Din Merican
Summary: DM: Abdullah’s delaying UMNO’s elections is politically shrewd; it would enable him to consolidate his position within the party and buy time to mend the economy. It may however be a case of too little, too late. He has neither the political will nor the leadership skills to execute such a quick turnaround.
MBM: We are headed for a turbulent patch, and the captain’s skill is severely wanting. Fortunately Malaysia is sufficiently advanced that it could sustain itself on automatic pilot. Let us hope that Abdullah just stands there and not do something, especially if is something stupid.
Dear Bakri:
You may have read that Pak Lah postponed UMNO’s triennial Leadership Convention, scheduled for next year, till after the next general election. He said, “This was to ensure undivided and full concentration was accorded to the general election,” and added, “[T]his is a procedure and policy of the party and has been done twice previously.… [It is] beneficial for the party as it could give all full concentration to national development and implementing projects in the interest of the rakyat.”
His move did not surprise me. I hope he would not defer next month’s UMNO General Assembly. He is being politically pragmatic; he fully expects the delegates to be rough on him for “sleeping on the job,” as exemplified by Zaid Ibrahim’s recent comments. Similar tough comments have come from Shahrir Samad on the ECM Libra-Avenue Securities merger involving Abdullah’s son-in-law, Khairy Jamaluddin, and his close associate, Kalimullah Hassan.
Tengku Razaleigh too made some strong remarks especially regarding the implementation of the 9MP. In an interview he said, “[N]othing has happened even in the 9MP. None of the projects has got off the ground. You name me one.”
Abdullah had neglected the economy; he had been too busy enjoying the perks of office by his frequent foreign trips and ceremonial engagements with ASEAN, OIC and NAM. He was also distracted by the personal problems with his late wife. He now wants to buy some time to revive the economy before facing his party and the people in 2008.
He is just deluding himself into believing that he could execute a turnaround in the economy in such a short time. He just does not have what it takes to lead. He is simply not credible and does not have the political will to make things happen, and happen quickly.
Razaleigh had this to say on Badawi’s attempts to reform the system, “Well, we can wait until 300 years later. I’m not saying it’s not going to happen, but it’s going to take a long time.… You talk about fighting corruption – you may catch one or two and that’s it but so many more are corrupt. But let us get on with something for the people – to get jobs and investments while you carry on tinkering with all these things which are going to take time.” In short, we need to jumpstart the nation’s economy and boost investors’ confidence.
In the short term delaying the leadership convention is a shrewd move. It would enable him to purge the party of Mahathir’s supporters. Badawi hopes that with his team in place and the economy on the mend, he can protect his legacy and be re-elected.
To me his latest maneuver is a manifestation of his weakness within the party. He can no longer hide that fact. Criticisms from Tun Mahathir and others have obviously taken their toll. Badawi’s postponing the leadership conference is merely an attempt at trying to capitalize on his incumbency.
Whether it will work remains to be seen. It would depend on the economy and investors’ confidence. It would be tough as the IMF-World Bank projects slower growth globally in 2007 and 08. He may not be able carry the civil servants with him this time, as he had denied them their pay raise. The country is also hobbled by rising prices of basic foods. Price controls succeeded only in more rules and regulations leading to supply bottlenecks, price distortions, and corruption.
Fortunately oil prices have eased, giving him room to reduce the pump price if he so chooses. The recent substantial oil price hikes were very unpopular, as expected. The surprise was that his advisors did not anticipate that!
With slower global growth hurting our exports, Abdullah will have no choice but to stimulate the domestic sector. Fortunately he has some flexibility here as the fiscal deficit has improved. The question is whether the effects of such stimulation would be felt by election time. It may be a case of too little, too late.
He may be politically astute in postponing the UMNO elections but good politics alone would not compensate for his inept handling of the economy. He should seek wider counsel by listening to his party elders, the business community, and the struggling men and women in the Malay street instead.
That is my take, what is yours?
Thanks, Din
M. Bakri Musa’s reply:
Dear Din:
It is hard to find any silver lining to this dark cloud that is Abdullah Badawi. You are being charitable to him, and that is appropriate during this Ramadan season. We are in for turbulent weather ahead, so better buckle-up.
Our pilot may have spent decades in the cockpit, but only as the flight engineer or first officer. In the strict Asian tradition of deferring to authority, he is used to only taking orders from the captain but never having to make the tough decisions. Thus far he is content enjoying being adulated as the captain, and marveling at the controls available to him.
He barely understands those levers except at the mechanical level. Move that yoke towards him and the plane will go up; push it away and the plane will nose down. He does not comprehend the underlying physics or aerodynamics.
Fortunately the modern aircraft is well designed and sturdy, with many redundant systems and failsafe features such that even a monkey could not crash it. The only design not factored in is for some maniac intent on crashing the machine onto a tower.
Malaysia is sufficiently advanced with a robust private sector. Malaysians are also more educated and better informed. The nation is akin to a 747 jet, even an idiot could not to crash it; only a determined crazy jihadist could. Badawi is closer to the former, not the latter. Malaysia should count its blessings in that respect.
Abdullah’s courtiers are content humoring their man, and he is enthralled with being a “show captain.” That would prevent him from wrecking too much havoc. Malaysia has an adequate autopilot to pull it through the rough patches. It would not be pretty, but survivable.
Malaysians may be exasperated with Badawi but I do not envisage a Thailand solution. Malaysians are too smart to let that happen.
I am ever mindful that with all the criticisms heaped upon him, Abdullah might just be tempted to do something just to show that he is in control. The instinct would be to, “Just don’t stand there, do something!” That would be dangerous as he could wreck considerable damage by doing something inappropriate. I would rather that he would not do anything but just stand there!
Unfortunately while Abdullah is enthralled with being the tenth sultan, his family, the “Fourth Floor boys,” and their cronies are busy plundering the nation.
There is of course a world of difference between merely surviving and thriving. If Vietnam were to thrive while Malaysia merely survived, then the knives would be out. By then however the old man would be thinking of his retirement and the Hereafter. A few perks and a Tunship, and he could be easily be persuaded to leave, especially if we promise him a royal send off!
I do not share your optimism, or more correctly your hope, on Badawi. I am however optimistic on Malaysians. They will continue ahead regardless of what the government does or does not do. Of course it would be better if the government were there to spur and help them.
Abdullah is secure in his ignorance. We should however not let up in our criticisms. Eventually only his courtier and cheerleaders would think that their man is donned in samping sutra. Everyone else could plainly see that he is wrapped in only tattered bark loincloth, essentially naked.
Malaysia survived the communist insurgency and the May 1969 riot; it will also survive Badawi’s ineptness. The magnitude of the lost opportunity would be significant, and would be borne primarily by today’s young. It is this that angers me most, and spurs me to be tough on his leadership, or rather lack of one.
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Badawi's interfaith talk faces test at home
(A feature published in Aljazeera Net on Tuesday 03 October 2006)
Days after Pope Benedict XVI quoted a Byzantine emperor linkening Islam with violence, Abdullah Badawi, the Malaysian prime minister, landed in Finland to discuss his country's success in the areas of race relations and inter-faith issues at the Sixth Asia-Europe Meeting.
The invitation was extended months in advance. But given the divisive turn of events and his position as chairman of the Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC), Badawi's presence was all the more apt.
He delivered a speech titled Dialogue among Cultures and Civilisations in which he focused on the eroding trust between the West and the Muslim world.
Badawi is also one of the main proponents of Islam hadhari (civilisational Islam), a political and ideological interpretation of the faith that stresses moderation and technological and economic competitiveness.
Malaysia is among the world's most stable and prosperous Muslim nations. And his style is by most accounts a refreshing change from that of his predecessor Mahathir Mohamed.
Mahathir was known for his tirades against the West and Jews - for clumping the world into dualistic entities based on ethnicity and religion.
Breaching the divide
This, say observers, puts Badawi in a position to be bridge-builder at a critical moment in Muslim-Western relations.
Kishore Mahbubani, dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, said: "He has the perfect temperament for the job. He is an open, understanding, genial person.
"He naturally builds trust and confidence wherever he goes. To be a bridge builder you need that kind of personality."
The question remains, however, whether Badawi will rise up to be that indispensable voice of moderation.
Ethnic and religious tensions appear to be intensifying in his own country. In July, Badawi seemed to side with Muslim hardliners by forestalling calls by a coalition of NGOs which want the Malaysian constitution - which guarantees equality and freedom of worship - to become the supreme law of the land.
The Sharia (Islamic law) courts have recently taken primacy over civil courts in a number of controversial court decisions. This has raised fears among Malaysia's 40% non-Muslim population.
Meanwhile, Islam hadhari, with its emphasis on education and development, has been praised by Muslims and non-Muslims as a deterrent of extremism and viable instrument of reconciliation between Islam and the West. But as with many of Badawi's policies, theory has lacked follow-through; observers worry that hardliners are starting to derail Malaysia's traditionally moderate brand of Islam.
Doubts raised
After the Danish cartoon controversy in February, Malaysians took to the streets brandishing signs that read, "Long live Islam. Destroy Denmark. Destroy Israel. Destroy George Bush. Destroy America." And in July, Badawi's son-in-law and close political ally Khairy Jamaluddin, led a protest in front of the US embassy in which dozens of American and Israeli flags were burned.
These developments raise doubts as to whether Badawi can be an international bridge-builder, said parliamentary backbencher Zaid Ibrahim: "We're not emulating the success story in Malaysia itself."
Zaharom Nain, political analyst and associate professor of journalism at the University Sains Malaysia School of Communications, says people are becoming sceptical of Badawi's efficacy.
"He has made a lot of promises, but people are sceptical whether it is just his public relations people coming up within these things [Islam hadhari].
"He has not delivered on a number of his promises at home, and that raises questions of how effective he will be internationally. He has not backed the talk with much walk."
Others argue that Badawi is working slowly but steadily toward his goals, and even where he may be falling short, domestic policies should not be confused with international relations.
International efforts
Internationally, Badawi has the ear of a wide array of voices. During the UN General Assembly in New York last week Bill Clinton, the former US president, and a group of NGOs met Abdullah to see ways to narrow the divide between Islam and the West.
Days earlier he met Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian president, at the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) summit in Havana, Cuba.
Badawi raised a few eyebrows for not repudiating Ahmadinejad's calls at an OIC conference that Malaysia hosted, when Ahmadinejad repeated his call for Israel's destruction; and likewise when he appeared on Malaysia's state-controlled newspaper covers smiling and shaking hands with Ahmadinejad.
Mahbubani noted Badawi's predicament. "To expect an Islamic leader to defend Israel is political suicide."
It is a point not apparently lost on Western leaders. Badawi's reticence and symbolic posturing has not seemed to impair relations with the West. And where it may be raising doubts as to where his heart is, Badawi has been careful to strike a balance in his movements and rhetoric.
He has expressed support for Washington's diplomatic offensive against Iran. And on the sidelines of the Asia-Europe Meeting (Asem) summit, Badawi held bilateral talks with key world leaders including Lee Hsien Loong, the Singaporean prime minister; Jacques Chirac, the French president; German Chancellor Angela Merkel; Romano Prodi, the Italian prime minister; Wen Jiabao, the Chinese prime minister; and Junichiro Koizumi, then the Japanese prime minister.
Badawi suggested at Asem that Asia and Europe establish a system of intelligence sharing to monitor terrorist travel and financing. At the conference Badawi also reiterated Malaysia's offer to contribute peacekeepers to the ceasefire in Lebanon.
Islam and the West
Elsewhere, Badawi has said the West and Islam must foster greater respect if they are to reconcile their differences.
"The demonisation of Islam and the vilification of Muslims, there is no denying, is widespread within mainstream Western society," he said at an international conference early this year, adding that Muslims must resist "sweeping denunciation of Christians, Jews and the West".
"The West should treat Islam the way it wants Islam to treat the West and vice versa. They should treat each other as equals."
Zaharom believes that many in Malaysia are hoping Abdullah succeeds in improving Islam-West relations. "On that plain of Islam and West relations, there is a great need for a bridge to be built," he told Aljazeera.net.
Nevertheless, some believe Muslim societies should also look inward for solutions.
Chandra Muzaffar, a Malaysian political scientist and president of the International Movement for a Just World (JUST), says: "At this time, what we need is honest self-introspection."
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To Market, To Market
If markets are any measure, Kim Jong-Il has tweaked the world’s nose again
Asia’s financial markets have largely shrugged off news of North Korea’s nuclear testing gambit. They just don’t appear to believe that the communist state’s latest machinations are the major threat to regional, let alone world, peace that screaming news headlines across the planet suggest.
In Japan, perhaps more nervous than even South Korea about Kim Jong-Il’s possession of a nuke, markets remained markedly steady, with the benchmark Nikkei average closing up slightly, by 0.25 percent. Even the South Korean market is down less than 2% after two days of post-bomb trading. Gold and oil jumped briefly but otherwise the event was just a blip on trading screens. Shares in other markets across Asia closed mostly higher, bouncing back from some severe bomb-driven losses yesterday, dealers said.
In some cases, market analysts were almost blithe. Economist Sharmila Whelan of CLSA Asia Pacific Markets in Hong Kong, wrote in a short analysis Tuesday morning that she is more concerned with South Korea’s macroeconomics, with business data declining for a second month. In Tokyo, companies supplying equipment to Japan’s Self-Defence Force climbed on the promise of more contracts.
This kind of reaction suggests that so far Kim Jong Il has been correct in his gamble that he can raise the stakes without setting off a reaction that would de-stabilise the peninsula, the region or the world. The fact is that many assumed Pyongyang already had the capability to make a bomb, but viewed it as part bargaining chip and part last-ditch defense in the event that anybody tries to achieve regime change by force.
North Korea’s claim to have tested a weapon raises the possibility of five different scenarios for Malcolm Wood of Morgan Stanley – regime collapse, direct control by China over North Korea, a regional arms race, resumption of the stalled six-party talks or a return to the status quo.
For Wood, “Talks and aid have demonstrably failed to date, while US military protection makes an arms race seem unnecessary. More importantly, a return to the status quo would imply another failure of commitment by the global community to successfully resolve the nuclear weapons ambition of a so-called ‘rogue state.’ On the other hand, regime collapse could prove an expensive outcome, especially for South Korea; hence we view increased Chinese involvement in North Korea as the most likely outcome. Were this to lead to a more moderate, outward-looking government in North Korea, it could be a positive development for regional markets, and for South Korea in particular.”
Of course, Kim could still be proved wrong. The additional sanctions that will now be forthcoming under UN auspices may create such hardship that the regime would implode. However, given how much it has already suffered the populace is unlikely to rebel now. A split in the ranks of the ruling elite is more likely, but even that is unlikely to coalesce around the nuclear issue, a matter of pride for most North Koreans, and some in the south too.
The international anger is more from frustration than anything else. Military action is ruled out both by China and the fact that the US has too many battles on its hands right now. And as far as nuclear issues are concerned, Washington is far more focused on Iran. China not only remembers the Korean War, in which it sent a million soldiers across the Yalu River, but also has a mutual defense pact with Pyongyang dating to 1961. It may want out of that but escape isn’t easy.
As much as anything, top US government officials are angry because Kim, as he has repeatedly done in the past, has demonstrated the utter futility of American refusal to deal directly with a country identified as a member of President George Bush’s Axis of Evil in 2002. Engagement could probably have headed off the bomb. As Gideon Rachman pointed out in an astute column in the 10 October Financial Times, the only member of the Axis of Evil (North Korea, Iran and Iraq) that the US ended up attacking was Iraq, which is the one without a nuclear weapon.
South Korea resents the failure of its sunshine diplomacy, Japan the fact that newly announced Prime Minister Shinzo Abe only last week, before he went to China, made a big issue of seeking to stop the Korean bomb. China is upset because it has been ignored by the ultranationalist Koreans and frustrated that it is stuck giving some economic support to the regime in fear of either chaos or losing all influence if it doesn’t.
The bottom line for markets is that proliferation in broad terms is unstoppable and only really dangerous if another power is absolutely set on stopping it, as in the case of Iran but not North Korea.
Given the US nuclear umbrella in the region Kim has created facts which are militarily insignificant. But they are likely to be politically effective, or at least to result in a continuation of the status quo and a regional standoff. The development of nuclear weapons by North Korea has been the foundation for a supposed crisis for the past dozen or more years as major powers have tried to figure out what to do about Kim’s adventures.
Markets apparently are assuming that after much noise and breast-beating, there will be an attempt to stop Kim expanding his arsenal or selling his bomb technology. In which case, talks are inevitable. And even if Kim's regime is somehow overthrown, any successor government is bound to use the nuke as a bargaining chip, something Kim has taught his starveling country to do for years.
In reality NK is a small, weak state surrounded by powers that have not been able to control what he does at home but are more than capable of keeping North Korea from being a real menace to anything other than non-proliferation, which is anyway already largely a dead letter thanks to nuclear weapons in the hands of Israel, India and Pakistan.
Markets can be badly wrong, of course, particularly if, as now, they continue to be buoyed by an onrush of international liquidity that allows dodgy Chinese banks to launch record-breaking initial public offerings, as ICBC did Monday. But investors might do better worrying about ICBC than about Kim Jong Il's latest and very successful effort to hit the headlines and frustrate President George W. Bush.
CPPS NINTH MALAYSIA PLAN ASLI bumiputera corporate equity Mirzan Mahathir Malaysia Abdullah Ahmad Badawi
posted by Ah Yun Wong at
6:21 PM
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